The new Palm in Stephen Curry’s Hand (McCracken, 2018).
Introduction
This blog will discuss the scenario planning failure
of Palm brand Personal Digital Assistant (PDA). The blog begins with a
discussion of why and how organizations have scenario planning failures and
what recent research suggests for improving success and efficiencies in the
scenario plan. Then the blog will
include a detailed explanation of the failed scenario plan of the Palm PDA. Next, the blog focuses on the impacts and the relevancy to the organization followed
by the forces that contributed to the innovation’s failure. Last, the blog
features a summary highlighting the key points of the Palm scenario planning
failure.
When Plans Go Wrong
Organizations are increasingly using the scenario
planning approach to predict future situations and to make strategic plans
based on those predictions. The reasoning behind the use of scenario planning
is to help reduce failures and the level of uncertainties and to provide
alternative thinking used in the decision-making process (Ratcliffe, 2000). Scenario
planning can be time-consuming; specifically, the construction of contextual
storytelling using what-if techniques of mapping, creativity, or Delphi
techniques for decision-making and strategic planning are time-intensive. Daszynska-Zygadlo
(2012) defines scenario planning in three components:
- identifying future combinations of uncertainties and emergent technology;
- interpreting relevant past and current events for scenarios; and
- developing logics for scenario moves and the interplay of predetermined elements and uncertainties.
Paul's (2016) research suggests scenario planning needs
to be aligned with a risk failure mode effect and analysis (REMEA) based in
project management to efficiently eliminate the element of uncertainty in the detection
method of risk.
Impact Example
In 1992 the Palm, Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) was
created by Jeff Hawkins and was called the Casio Zoomer, designed to compete
against Apple’s Newton PDA. In 1996 USRobotics (purchased by 3Com in 1997)
released the Palm PDA at $299 (McCracken, 2018). For those who remember, it was
small and easy to use and allowed users to add cameras or phone capabilities. Palm’s
scenario planning was similar to Microsoft’s with licensing its operating
systems to third-parties like Sony. In the early 2000’s, Palm introduced
Treo650 and was an industry leader with 20,000 apps including games to
spreadsheets (McCracken, 2018). The move to running the Windows operating
system proved to be poor scenario planning because of Windows' low customer
ratings at that time.
Furthermore, in 2007 Palm introduced Foleo, a small
laptop, for Treo users to increase screen size and to add a keyboard. Foleo,
however, never shipped, and Palm later promised a Foleo II in the future that
never shipped and never reached the market. During all of the Foleo debacle,
Palm released a new smartphone with a slide-out QWERTY keyboard and a new
operating system called WebOS in 2009. The new WebOS was initially only
available on the Sprint network which was no threat to iPhone or Android competition
(McCracken, 2018). By 2010 the lackluster Palm brand was sold to HP, and in
2013, HP sold the WebOS to LG which adapted the technology for smart TVs. In
2014 TCL purchased the right to use the Palm brand, and in 2018, created a
startup using the Palm brand powered by Android in an attempt to rejuvenate a
comeback of a small (3.3-inch screen) handheld device using celebrity marketing
by Golden State Warrior Stephen Curry. The Verge labels the Palm devices as
tiny, strange, quirky and having low-end specs (Welch, 2018). Despite numerous
attempts, the Palm devices have failed at scenario planning.
Relevant and Why
The relevancy of the Palm scenario planning failure
was pivotal at the adoption of the WebOS, which was only initially available
on the Sprint network. At what point in the scenario plan did a Sprint-only
network come up? Palm’s strategic plan may have been to dominate Sprint sales;
however, the scenario plan failed to align with it. In 2004 Palm was dominating
the market, and by 2009 became no threat to iPhone or Android by isolating
itself in the small Sprint network. As previously mentioned, Paul's (2016)
research showed increased success when scenario planning used REMEA. The
scenario plan effect and analysis with the WebOS and Sprint-only network failed
to assess the iPhone and Android cellphone competition and growth.
Forces
The technical forces mentioned above of WebOS and
isolation to the Sprint network drastically reduced the success and ultimate
failure of the Palm brand and device. Furthermore, the social aspect of
customers’ wants and desires of a larger screen and easier-use keyboard were
ignored. Instead, Palm tried to create the Foleo and Foleo II mini laptop—complicating
matters—and never released either product to advance societal perceptions. An
additional influence was money. After multiple attempts for R&D on the Palm
and Foleo with no release or product sales, the funds had run out, and the
organization had to sell.
Summary
Scenario planning must include RFMEA to align the scope
and project goals with the real-world consequences of cost, schedule, and
quality in uncertain conditions. Palm failed to correctly scenario plan after
initial success in 2004 when it introduced Foleo products with the WebOS
exclusively on the Sprint network. After being sold several times, Palm brand has
struggled to make a comeback, or obtain a sustainable competitive advantage. Issues
of relevance to competition, combined with financial forces, have misaligned
the scenario plan and overall product strategies leading to failed product
sales and loss of market share.
References
Boehner, K., DePaula, R., Dourish, P., & Sengers,
P. (2007). How emotion is made and measured. International Journal of
Human-Computer Studies, 65(4), 275-291.
doi:10.1016/j.ijhcs.2006.11.016
Daszyńska-Żygadło, K. (2012). Scenario planning and
real options analysis in integrated risk management process. Universitatis
Mariae Curie-Skłodowska. Sectio H. Oeconomia, 46(4 (XLVI)), 75-84. Retrieved
from
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/bf85/86c19e2d7f56d30873d72629b914a6dcb331.pdf
McCracken, H. (2018). Palm’s progress: The rise,
fall-andrebirth-of a legendary brand. FastCompany.com. Retrieved from
https://www.fastcompany.com/90246716/palms-progress-the-rise-fall-and-rebirth-of-a-legendary-brand
Paul, V. K., & Basu, C. (2016). Scenario Planning
and Risk Failure Mode Effect and Analysis (RFMEA) based Management. Journal
of Construction Engineering and Project Management, 6(2), 24-29.
doi:10.6106/JCEPM.2016.6.2.024
Ratcliffe, J. (2000). Scenario building: a suitable
method for strategic property planning?. Property management, 18(2),
127-144. Retrieved from
https://arrow.tudublin.ie/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1015&context=futuresacart
Welch, C. (2018). Alleged new Palm smartphone is tiny,
strange, and has low-end specs. TheVerge.com. Retrieved from
https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2018/8/9/17672068/new-palm-android-pepito-smartphone-photos-specs-leak
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