Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Palm Scenario Planning Failure



The new Palm in Stephen Curry’s Hand (McCracken, 2018).

Introduction

This blog will discuss the scenario planning failure of Palm brand Personal Digital Assistant (PDA). The blog begins with a discussion of why and how organizations have scenario planning failures and what recent research suggests for improving success and efficiencies in the scenario plan.  Then the blog will include a detailed explanation of the failed scenario plan of the Palm PDA. Next, the blog focuses on the impacts and the relevancy to the organization followed by the forces that contributed to the innovation’s failure. Last, the blog features a summary highlighting the key points of the Palm scenario planning failure.

When Plans Go Wrong

Organizations are increasingly using the scenario planning approach to predict future situations and to make strategic plans based on those predictions. The reasoning behind the use of scenario planning is to help reduce failures and the level of uncertainties and to provide alternative thinking used in the decision-making process (Ratcliffe, 2000). Scenario planning can be time-consuming; specifically, the construction of contextual storytelling using what-if techniques of mapping, creativity, or Delphi techniques for decision-making and strategic planning are time-intensive. Daszynska-Zygadlo (2012) defines scenario planning in three components:


  1. identifying future combinations of uncertainties and emergent technology;
  2. interpreting relevant past and current events for scenarios; and
  3. developing logics for scenario moves and the interplay of predetermined elements and uncertainties.   

Paul's (2016) research suggests scenario planning needs to be aligned with a risk failure mode effect and analysis (REMEA) based in project management to efficiently eliminate the element of uncertainty in the detection method of risk.

Impact Example

In 1992 the Palm, Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) was created by Jeff Hawkins and was called the Casio Zoomer, designed to compete against Apple’s Newton PDA. In 1996 USRobotics (purchased by 3Com in 1997) released the Palm PDA at $299 (McCracken, 2018). For those who remember, it was small and easy to use and allowed users to add cameras or phone capabilities. Palm’s scenario planning was similar to Microsoft’s with licensing its operating systems to third-parties like Sony. In the early 2000’s, Palm introduced Treo650 and was an industry leader with 20,000 apps including games to spreadsheets (McCracken, 2018). The move to running the Windows operating system proved to be poor scenario planning because of Windows' low customer ratings at that time.

Furthermore, in 2007 Palm introduced Foleo, a small laptop, for Treo users to increase screen size and to add a keyboard. Foleo, however, never shipped, and Palm later promised a Foleo II in the future that never shipped and never reached the market. During all of the Foleo debacle, Palm released a new smartphone with a slide-out QWERTY keyboard and a new operating system called WebOS in 2009. The new WebOS was initially only available on the Sprint network which was no threat to iPhone or Android competition (McCracken, 2018). By 2010 the lackluster Palm brand was sold to HP, and in 2013, HP sold the WebOS to LG which adapted the technology for smart TVs. In 2014 TCL purchased the right to use the Palm brand, and in 2018, created a startup using the Palm brand powered by Android in an attempt to rejuvenate a comeback of a small (3.3-inch screen) handheld device using celebrity marketing by Golden State Warrior Stephen Curry. The Verge labels the Palm devices as tiny, strange, quirky and having low-end specs (Welch, 2018). Despite numerous attempts, the Palm devices have failed at scenario planning.

Relevant and Why

The relevancy of the Palm scenario planning failure was pivotal at the adoption of the WebOS, which was only initially available on the Sprint network. At what point in the scenario plan did a Sprint-only network come up? Palm’s strategic plan may have been to dominate Sprint sales; however, the scenario plan failed to align with it. In 2004 Palm was dominating the market, and by 2009 became no threat to iPhone or Android by isolating itself in the small Sprint network. As previously mentioned, Paul's (2016) research showed increased success when scenario planning used REMEA. The scenario plan effect and analysis with the WebOS and Sprint-only network failed to assess the iPhone and Android cellphone competition and growth.

Forces

The technical forces mentioned above of WebOS and isolation to the Sprint network drastically reduced the success and ultimate failure of the Palm brand and device. Furthermore, the social aspect of customers’ wants and desires of a larger screen and easier-use keyboard were ignored. Instead, Palm tried to create the Foleo and Foleo II mini laptop—complicating matters—and never released either product to advance societal perceptions. An additional influence was money. After multiple attempts for R&D on the Palm and Foleo with no release or product sales, the funds had run out, and the organization had to sell.

Summary

Scenario planning must include RFMEA to align the scope and project goals with the real-world consequences of cost, schedule, and quality in uncertain conditions. Palm failed to correctly scenario plan after initial success in 2004 when it introduced Foleo products with the WebOS exclusively on the Sprint network. After being sold several times, Palm brand has struggled to make a comeback, or obtain a sustainable competitive advantage. Issues of relevance to competition, combined with financial forces, have misaligned the scenario plan and overall product strategies leading to failed product sales and loss of market share.


References

Boehner, K., DePaula, R., Dourish, P., & Sengers, P. (2007). How emotion is made and measured. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies65(4), 275-291. doi:10.1016/j.ijhcs.2006.11.016

Daszyńska-Żygadło, K. (2012). Scenario planning and real options analysis in integrated risk management process. Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska. Sectio H. Oeconomia, 46(4 (XLVI)), 75-84. Retrieved from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/bf85/86c19e2d7f56d30873d72629b914a6dcb331.pdf

McCracken, H. (2018). Palm’s progress: The rise, fall-andrebirth-of a legendary brand. FastCompany.com. Retrieved from https://www.fastcompany.com/90246716/palms-progress-the-rise-fall-and-rebirth-of-a-legendary-brand

Paul, V. K., & Basu, C. (2016). Scenario Planning and Risk Failure Mode Effect and Analysis (RFMEA) based Management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management6(2), 24-29. doi:10.6106/JCEPM.2016.6.2.024

Ratcliffe, J. (2000). Scenario building: a suitable method for strategic property planning?. Property management18(2), 127-144. Retrieved from https://arrow.tudublin.ie/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1015&context=futuresacart

Welch, C. (2018). Alleged new Palm smartphone is tiny, strange, and has low-end specs. TheVerge.com. Retrieved from https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2018/8/9/17672068/new-palm-android-pepito-smartphone-photos-specs-leak





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