Introduction
The blog begins by discussing the definitions and
distinctions of forecasting and predictions in an innovation environment. The
business innovation context discussed is Nikola Tesla’s prediction of wireless
charging and the wireless transmission of power. Tesla was in the process of
developing the technology, and the project was shut down for two major factors.
One force was that the technology was new and was not readily available nor
developed. The second force was that he ran out of funding, and the wireless
tower he was in the process of constructing was demolished. In hindsight, had
Tesla created a smaller version of the invention, his prediction could have
come true during his life instead of 100 years later. If Tesla was able to
build a small-scale production model, he would have been able to forecast the
large scale and commercial production of wireless electricity from past sales.
Innovation with Forecasting and Prediction
Innovation with forecasting and predictions both
involve analysis. Forecasting uses expert judgment and statistical methods of
past events to estimate future production or events. An example, of
forecasting, is a Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) method that uses forecasting
expertise and domain knowledge judgment to apply rules and develop
extrapolations (Armstrong, 2001). Prediction is analysis by experts who model
over a timeline in a prototypical point of view to predicting future events.
Tesla used his analysis of the new electrical AC-current in the ether and
applied it to the experimentation of prototypes towers to extrapolate new
wireless products. The Delphi prediction method uses a panel of experts with
statistical aggregation in multiple rounds (Goodarzi et al., 2018). Predictions
use “applied science” and connect sets of variables to predict unknown values
and inferences (Simon, 2001). Forecasting is typically utilized with more
accuracy for short-term scenarios that include low uncertainty, stability,
domain knowledge, and trends. Prediction is better suited for uncertainty, low
domain knowledge, little or no historical information, and outcomes that are
ten or twenty years in the future. In contrast, prediction accuracy lies in not
just measuring data as in forecasting but constructing statistical models to
explain phenomena to generate measurable predictions.
Wireless Charging
Nikola Tesla, a Serbian-American inventor/engineer,
born to an orthodox priest, is credited for over 300 patents and numerous
predictions like automated cars, drones, and other cutting-edge technology. I
will be focusing on one of his renowned inventions and experiments involving
near field electromagnetic (EM) transmission. Recently wireless charging for
mobile phones has become a viable option for many people. New automobiles are
also offering wireless charges as features, and the aftermarket of products for
wireless charging is growing. Nikola Tesla discussed experiments with alternate
currents of high frequency and the application methods before the American
Institute of Electrical Engineers, Columbia College, N.Y. (Tesla, 1891). He
discussed his scientific observations, which verified the ether present in our
atmosphere as the medium of an electric phenomenon using induction coils that he
created to discharge high tension currents. He predicted employing a commercial
coil to power lights and potentially other devices across great distances.
Tesla’s Magnifying Transmitter was his vision of
revolutionizing the world with free power, transportation, communication, and
even weather control. His transmitter was on the cutting-edge of sending
electricity wirelessly in a time when wires were an innovation. The Tesla
Tower, known as the Wardenclyffe Tower (Magnifying Transmitter) was built by Tesla
in the early 1900’s (see figure 1).
Figure 1. Wardenclyffe Tower
Source: Tesla Memorial Society of New York (2019)
The Wardenclyffe Tower was demolished in 1917 and
never became fully functional. Financial difficulties for Telsa caused the sale
of the property that housed his tower, for commercial development. (Tesla,
2002). The possibilities of the tower could have been endless had it become
functional.
Force 1
The technology was a force that prohibited the
development of this tower. Telsa was on the cutting edge of new innovative
hardware that did not yet exist, and thus, the ability to manufacture the parts
needed for this hardware was limited. The first decade of 1900 was ripe with
new inventions such as the washing machine and the model T-car. Additionally,
the first human-crewed controlled flight by the Wright brothers was yet another
technological break-through of this decade. Electronics was in its infancy and
prohibited Tesla from building the inventions promptly. It also led to
increased costs, the second force.
Force 2
Finances, coupled with the increased costs with the
slow production of equipment, delayed Tesla from producing the tower and
developing it more quickly. The slow and costly production led Tesla not to be
able to produce revenue from the device in a timely manner. The lack of profits
and financial support led to the foreclosure of the property where the tower
resided, followed by its demolition. The Tesla Memorial Society of New York
(2019) quotes J.P. Morgan, financier of the Tesla Broadcasting system, “How can
we get money from the electricity which Tesla is supplying to every part of the
world?” Tesla’s vision was for free power, and when Morgan heard that, he cut
the funds to the tower, and it was never completed.
Summary
J.P. Morgan got his answer; the wireless technology
has been commercialized successfully to make money. Tesla’s prediction was
never actually accomplished in his lifetime; however, he was correct, and we
benefit from wireless charging today. Some interesting facts about the story
from the Tesla Science Center at Wardenclyffe website are that the property was
never developed. The original red brick laboratory building still stands today.
In 2017, ground-penetrating radar confirmed hundreds of feet of tunnels beneath
the structure, and the reason for these tunnels remains a mystery. The Telsa
Science Center at Wardenclyffe, a non-profit organization, now owns the
property and hopes to restore it to develop a science and technology center
with a museum. Additionally, the property is also listed on the National
Register of Historic Places.
References
Armstrong, J. S., Adya, M., & Collopy, F. (2001).
Rule-based forecasting: Using judgment in time-series extrapolation. In
Principles of Forecasting (pp. 259-282). Springer, Boston, MA.
Goodarzi, Z., Abbasi, E., & Farhadian, H. (2018).
Achieving consensus deal with methodological issues in the Delphi technique.
International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development, 8(2),
219-230. Retrieved from http://ijamad.iaurasht.ac.ir/article_540498_d4bd6133361312bb4c273242368de1ee.pdf
Shmueli, G. (2010). To explain or to predict?.
Statistical science, 25(3), 289-310. doi:10.1214/10-STS330
SIMON, H. A. (2001). Science seeks parsimony, not
simplicity: Searching for pattern in phenomena. In Simplicity, Inference and
Modelling: Keeping it Sophisticatedly Simple 32–72. Cambridge Univ. Press
Tesla, N. (1891). Experiments with alternate currents
of very high frequency and their application to methods of artificial illumination.
Transactions of the American Institute of Electrical Engineers, 8(1), 266-319.
Retrieved from http://www.tfcbooks.com/tesla/1891-05-20.htm
Tesla, N. (2002). Nikola Tesla on His Work with
Alternating Currents and Their Application to Wireless Telegraphy, Telephony,
and Transmission of Power: An Extended Interview. 21st Century
Tesla Memorial Society of New York. Wardenclyff Tower.
(2019) Retrieved from https://www.teslasociety.com/teslatower.htm
No comments:
Post a Comment