Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Measurement and Control of Employee Emotional Responses and Contagions in Real-Time: Applications of an Emotional Leadership Paradigm Sociotechnical Plan (Updated 8/29/2023)


Measurement and Control of Employee Emotional Responses and Contagions in Real-Time: Applications of an Emotional Leadership Paradigm Sociotechnical Plan

Updated 8/29/2023


Dr. Ronald Wellman


Introduction

This paper will describe the real-time application of an emotional leadership paradigm (ELP) sociotechnical plan to measure and control employee emotional responses and contagions. The purpose of the ELP sociotechnical plan is to integrate technology into organizational development by fusing people and technology. First, the paper will explain three features and one limitation of the innovation, followed by the purpose of showing why the plan is needed, including the supporting forces, positive issues, and outcomes associated with the plan. Next, the paper discusses the challenging forces of the plan development and implementation. Degives visual models of the plan and how the ELP will be used with monitoring the flow of emotions. The analytical plan explains the use of emotional data for corrections and alignment of the organizational mission. Anticipated results and conclusions detail results and outcomes, followed by areas of future research recommendations and references. 

  

Measurement and Control of Employee Emotional Responses and Contagions: Real-Time Applications of an Emotional Leadership Paradigm Sociotechnical Plan

Scope

The scope of this Emotional Leadership Paradigm (ELP) sociotechnical plan is the introduction and innovation of the following three technology features, as well as one limitation. The three technological features are:

1.      Video cameras (audio included) with face recognition with heat and infrared imaging;
2.      HID (human input devices) phones, keyboards, mice, headphones with microphones, touchpads, chairs; and
3.      Wearables such as watches, shirts, pants, hats, shoes, glasses, and rings.

The one limitation is the need for the software to measure and compile the data in a meaningful way. This limitation is potentially compounded by the need for computing power and bandwidth for real-time analysis of the data. Via technology, the sociotechnical system will be used in organizational development to monitor, measure, and help control emotional contagions in daily business operations. The technology will be dynamic and can assist in measuring inputs and performing outputs to help stabilize or contribute to emotional satisfaction and increased performance.

Furthermore, the software would continually need improvements and updates as the body of knowledge on emotional-oriented computing and research is still in the early stages (Feidakis, 2011). The lack of an agreed-upon empirical method, combined with the complexity of emotions, has computer science and organizational change management (OCM) academics and practitioners debating a diversity of theories, models, and tools.


Purpose

The purpose of the sociotechnical plan is to create a technologically-integrated emotional monitoring system for employees to help limit and control negative emotions and help encourage and reinforce positive emotions to improve performance and job satisfaction. Leaders who integrate an intelligent, emotional strategy in organizational development lay the groundwork for success (Goleman, Boyatzis, & McKee, 2013). Stakeholders, executive leaders, and managers can monitor employees’ emotions at their desks, by using face recognition software that measures emotions, body language, and brain activity by integrating infrared and heat imaging. Other HID-like keyboards, mice, headsets, and even chairs can measure contributing factors like body temperature and keystroke pressures for aggression.  Furthermore, watches, rings, and chairs can measure and monitor perspiration, blood pressure, and heart rates. Similarly, other wearables like glasses can additionally help measure engagement by tracking the eyes and head movements. Additionally, hats or headsets could also measure brain waves and be used to control computers.

The data can be stored and analyzed in real-time. Furthermore, depending on the software’s analysis abilities, leaders can use deep analysis over time to watch for trends. In real-time, leaders can see when one or more employees are stressing or having positive emotions and create contagions for organizational change to help motivate and influence teams. These analytics can also be used in phones and organizational apps that customers use to monitor customers' emotions. For example, if while on hold, the system recognizes an angry customer, it could potentially expedite that customer to a customer service representative to handle the issue faster, with increased satisfaction. In juxtaposition, if a customer service representative were having problems dealing with a difficult customer, the system could recommend an escalation to another representative to help diffuse the situation.

These are just preliminary examples of the uses of the emotional leadership sociotechnical plan. When used in conjunction with the ELP devices like phones and wearables, information can be detected 24/7 to input data from employees who work outside the office and attend “outside events” after work hours. See Figure 1.




Figure 1. Emotional leadership paradigm (ELP) Source: Author

Supporting Forces

The introduction of the technology described above to the workforce will enable organizations to better deal with the millennial generations, as well as all generations because it will help individuals to cope better with organizational development and leader-member exchanges (Dansereau, 1975). For example, suppose a worker goes home and experiences a stressful life event, such as the unexpected death or illness of a loved one. The watch, ring, or phone picks up emotional stress from the employee, and the data is analyzed. Depending on the level of stress and inputs, an automatic option to have an extended start time, a day off, or work from home option might pop up on a message to help the individual better deal with the situation or resolve personal issues. This way when the employee comes to work, he or she can better focus and be more productive and would not create distractions or negative emotional contagions in the office. Suppose further that the same employee might be scheduled for an important presentation, meeting, or other high-performance critical event or decision happening at the office. The outside stressful event might foster a negative emotional contagion in this already emotionally distressed employee, thus potentially proving detrimental to the successful completion of that important event or decision inside the organization.


Challenging Forces

Software, data collection or corruption, analytics, privacy, and ethical concerns are all issues that will present difficult challenges. The software is not yet available and could take a considerable amount of R&D to develop and align with the three forces mentioned to collect and measure the data. Artificial intelligence (AI) could potentially aid in its development and refinement. Corrupt or incorrectly measured data could give false readings, warnings, or incorrect analysis, which could potentially put employees, leaders, and the organization at risk. The data collection software would need to be compatible with the analytic software. Options to use different AI software with the data collection software would give a competitive advantage to the software manufacturer and allow organizations to choose the analytic software that might best fit their needs.

Employee and organizational privacy concerns, including security breaches, would be a big risk if the information got into the wrong hands or was manipulated by a third party to control outcomes undenounced to leaders. Vyas, (2019) reveals deep fakes using Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have two components a forger and detectives can be used to defraud or detect fraudulent images. Also, personal information collected outside the organization has the potential for someone to blackmail or commit other unethical behaviors. Organizations could sell sensitive data on the black market revealing the behaviors or emotional stability of the organization’s customers and employees.

Methods

The method used to implement and execute the emotional leadership sociotechnical plan would need to be a hybrid of the Delphi method and Agile software programming. The strength of the Delphi method is that it can include both qualitative and quantitative components collected from experts in their fields. The complexity and a large number of unknowns will be useful in IT Service Management (ITSM) in the Delphi method. The Delphi technique will help mitigate differentiating opinions from panel experts for decision-making. Research by Santiago (2017) revealed that Delphi methods worked well in project management, information security, and organizational management in complex environments.

Combining the Agile software programing methodology with Delphi techniques would work well because they both rely on real-time information and releases in iterations to find, fix, and align expectations. The software maker could determine the form of the Agile methods, and depending on the industry, the form binge used would provide flexibility and lower risks to the developers and organizations using the software. Forms include, but are not limited to, scrum, crystal, extreme programming, or a feature-driven model. The development process uses collaboration in mini increments with deliverables that receive daily feedback and review. The Agile accelerated lifecycle delivery method is advantageous for organizations dealing with fast-paced changing marketplace environments and complex unknowns. The application of AI in the agile software programming could increase the accuracy and speed of development.


Visual Models

The focus of this sociotechnical plan is to help leaders better manage the emotional contagions for successful business administration. Leadership is an emotional process, and leaders who use emotional intelligence (EI) will increase engagement (Humphrey, 2016; Miao, Humphrey, & Qian, 2016). A leader's ability to align the mission with EI strategies will increase performance and employee satisfaction (Miao et al., 2016). Furthermore, combining an integrated method of emotion measurement with human-computer interaction (HCI) will give organizations the ability for sensing, transmitting, understanding, interpreting, and experiencing complex emotions. The sociotechnical plan will allow leaders to monitor, measure, and evaluate emotions from employees and customers, and better control emotional contagions in real-time.

Business administration is laden with social and emotional dynamics. The sociotechnical plan makes use of facial electromyography (EMG) with HCI devices like keyboards, touchscreen, mice with measuring sensors, and cameras which will include eye-tracking technology. Physiological measurement of skin conductance, heart rate, respiration, and brain activity will provide insights into emotions and cognitive responses (Lazar, 2017) because the measurement of emotional experiences is not usually verbal or language-based (Hazlett, 2007). For this reason, the computer software and AI will pull from various HCI devices including nonintrusive infrared thermography cameras. Physiological emotional measurement of infrared thermography includes neurological, electrical, and vascular responses (Clay-Warner, & Robinson, 2015). It has been demonstrated that specific physiological responses have distinct thermal imaging (TI) signatures that are clearly observed (Ioannou, 2014).

The use of the emotional leadership paradigm (ELP) (see Figure 1) and the proposed emotional sociotechnical plan (ESP) is best visualized with the contagions in the ELP with the emotional labor (EL) in the blue circular star interacting in the leader-member exchange (LMX) (Dansereau, 1975). EL is the management of mental and physical feelings and the processing of emotions during interactions (Lazarus & Folkmann, 1984). Inside (red) and outside (green) events also affect leaders’ and followers’ perceptions and are identified with the use of EL (see Figure 2).




Figure 2. ELP highlights the intersection of EL and emotional contagions. Source: Author

The sociotechnical plan will help manage the measurement of emotions within an organization with HCI devices sending emotional data to the software for analysis. The software sends leadership real-time analysis of emotions and alerts when negative or dysfunctional behavior occurs. Leaders then make short-and long-term corrections and implement actions with followers. Furthermore, the short- and long-term analysis continues and is forwarded to shareholders in an organizational behavioral analysis matrix of all followers in the organization. Thus, this allows shareholders to make emotional leadership decisions to further align the mission with policies, procedures, and training to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage; see Figure 3.



Figure 3. Emotional Sociotechnical Plan (ESP). Source: Author

The integration of EI and technology is supported in research to sustain a competitive advantage, increase performance, and promote employee and customer satisfaction (Babaeinesami, 2018; Nanayakkara, 2018; Tse, 2017).

Analytical Plan

The analytical plan is best illustrated in the emotional sociotechnical plan (ESP) (see figure 3) for the flow of emotions and the analysis from the emotional data from the followers. The secondary flow of analysis is from the leaders to the shareholders for long-term organizational behavioral analysis and review and reflection of short-term corrections. Emotions and science have presented a challenge with defining and contrasting cognitive understanding with the non-rational nature of emotions (Boehner, 2007). For this reason, the analytical plan will include using the iMotions platform for synchronizing all the HCI devices. The iMotions software provides measurements of twenty facial expressions, seven core emotions, facial landmarks, and behavioral indices like head motion and body language. The analysis will include predictive probability values for the likelihood of emotions, engagement, and overall expressed emotions. A Facial Action Coding System (FACS) will be used to analyze expressions in real-time. The Affectiva platform will combine biometrics of employees with media analytics to measure unfiltered and unbiased responses from customer experiences and marketing campaigns.

Another analysis metric will measure the intensity of emotions displayed. The use of Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) in the analysis will increase accuracy in analysis and will delve into the unconscious triggers of emotional behavior. GSR is also referred to as Electrodermal Activity (EDA) or Skin Conductance (SC) and shows distinct emotional patterns that can be quantified statistically (iMotions, 2016). Additional benefits of the ESP are that it merges emotions and leadership, and it will also give insight into the cognitive and physical health of the individual. For example, monitoring skin functions with a watch or other HCI will help monitor thermo-regulation and immune system functions. Analyzing and combining data inputs will give a better high-level overview of an individual's health and well-being far beyond emotions.


Anticipated Results

The social impact of the change will be mixed. Some will view it as invasive and a breach of their privacy. Others won't care and will accept the technology with open arms. Stakeholders and leaders will need to emphasize the need and benefits of the technology for acceptance. For example, what if a customer service call could measure the emotions of a customer before answering the call, using inputs from the mobile app in which they are contacting the organization? What if the beginning automated contact phone system coordinator was able to deduce and prioritize a caller's distress or happiness, and then expedite and assign the caller to the appropriate representative before the customer even spoke to a human? How might that improve overall customer satisfaction? Who hasn’t yelled at an automated system when it was slow or not connecting to the correct department? How did that make you feel?

On the employee side of the anticipated results, what if your health was affecting your quality of work?  Your biometrics reflected your immune system is low and needed time off. Your emotional responses were worsening, with anger and frustration integrating into your work. What if your organization told you to go home and take the day off with pay before you ask? How might employees view the system if the focus was on the need and benefits of serving the employee?

Furthermore, in cold and flu season identifying employees who are sick could also limit the spread of the cold, flu, and most recently, coronavirus—a potentially life-threatening disease. The added health monitoring in real-time of employees would benefit employee retention, satisfaction, and early warning of illnesses that could potentially limit the contagions of viral and biological sickness and diseases. Employers could offer sick employees unlimited days off which is a new trend proving successful on perceived productivity and work-life balance (De Jong, 2015). Sending sick employees home would continue workforce efficiency and productivity from healthy employees and offset any costs for additional personal days off for sick employees.

Leaders can use emotional data and analysis to better measure culture and create a harmony that is reinforced with policies and procedures inside and outside the office. Mobile internet traffic has surpassed PC-based internet traffic with more than 3.5 billion smartphones in 77% of Americans' hands (Deyan, 2019). Measurements from smartphones for this sociotechnical plan will enable unobtrusive emotion measurement in a scalable way to use facial coding and minute-by-minute analysis to increase insights into ad effectiveness and value to business administration.

Furthermore, the emotional recognition system can monitor employees’ and customers’ responses to the system and make automated corrections immediately. The ESP system analysis will monitor the effectiveness of the system and can send automated recommendations for improvements to certain individuals, teams, or departments. An approach that will help sell the benefits to users would be to introduce a “test period” and to incrementally implement the system to all individuals. Psychologically, this is advantageous for reluctant groups and individuals and allows stakeholders and leaders to promote specific features to those groups to enable them to see the need and value. Congruently, organizations will gain valuable insight into emotions, which in turn will increase performance and employee satisfaction during the introductory period. Data collection from introductory recipients will give a better understanding of the best way to introduce and tailor future implementation to other teams and individuals based on previous cultural analyses. International organizations with increased individual diversity may benefit the most for ESP by bridging the cultural gaps more quickly and more effectively.

Conclusion

Leaders who understand emotional labor (EL), emotional regulation (ER), emotional contagions (EC), and the use of emotional display rules (EDR) can reduce resistance and increase performance with OCM in business administration (Goleman, 1995; Salovey & Mayer, 1990). Banutu-Gomez (2016) suggested organizations that adopt an employee culture-based OCM using technology increase success. Human Capital Management (HCM) plays a strong role in successful OCM and the decision-making process. Groysberg (2018) indicated cultural analysis and decision-making would lead to long-term effects of sustainable outcomes. When decision-making is combined with a polyarchal approach to the integration of individuals, it can expedite strategic goals (Valle & Levy, 2019). Adoption of EI strategies (Goleman, 1995; Salovey & Mayer, 1990) and integration in leadership skills have been identified (Kouzes & Posner, 2007) as effective applications in business administration (Cherniss, 2010). Nanayakkara (2018) showed the implementation and integration of technology increases successful outcomes. The use of ESP technology will help integrate EI strategies, culture, and HCM with a polyarchal approach to OCM for successful outcomes.

Understanding human emotions and their links to behaviors will help business leaders more effectively administer policies and procedures for successful outcomes. Business leaders must align the organizational change with the mission and vision of the organization. Psychology and neuroscience research continues to grow and to link emotions to better understand human behavior, cognition, and physical health. Applications of this technology will affect all industries including retail, education, gaming, entertainment, automobile, advertising, and social media, just to name a few.

Security and privacy are big concerns. This new technology will offer new opportunities to take security to higher levels by combining biotechnologies for multipoint confirmation of a person and the device. Multiple unique signatures from voice, face, and GSR create a more secure authentication for protection against unauthorized access. The pushback to be anticipated will be in the surrendering of personal privacy, similarly to recent laws like the USA Patriot Act of 2001. The line between surveillance for law enforcement purposes and intelligence gathering enacted for mass government surveillance and data mining are blurring personal privacy for the promise of security.

Ethics play a large role in concluding how this sociotechnical plan is administered and received. Organizations need to be clear on how, what, and why data will be used and then clearly communicate that to their employees—reinforcing the ethical behavior of the organization. Businesses seeking to make extra money must disclose this to employees. Many consumer data and data companies exist that are already creating profiles on individuals. In 2017 Acxiom provided up to 3,000 attributes on 700 million people, which grew to 10,000 attributes on 2.5 billion consumers in 2018 (see figure 4, Melendez, & Pasternack, 2019).




Figure 4. Acxiom individual attributes list (Melendez, & Pasternack, 2019).

The amount of data will be mindboggling in years to come, and unless you live off the grid in a distant and remote place and are self-sufficient, it will be almost impossible not to be on someone’s data list. Therefore, ethical concerns are one of the significant objective forces of this sociotechnical plan. Even if the organization is ethical and does everything to protect an individual's data, there is this threat of theft and confiscation by law enforcement within the Patriot Act or other sources.

For all the reasons mentioned above in the conclusion, the need for the hybrid method of Delphi and Agile software programming is imperative. The fast-changing business administration demands, and disruptive technology, warrant the use of qualitative and quantitative mixed-methods approaches in the sociotechnical plan. Evidence-based management (EBM) promotes evidence-based decision-making in times of uncertainty which will increase the odds of successful outcomes (Rousseau, 2018). The complexity of disruptive technology, combined with the complexity of emotions and behaviors, lends itself to the Delphi method for decision-making and for projecting probable outcomes in yet an additionally complex global business environment (Santiago, 2017). The Delphi method is well suited with subject matter experts (SME) for private and public organizations (Szymaniec-Mlicka, 2014). Furthermore, Santiago (2017) showed the decision-making process with SMEs impacted cost controls, information security, and management structures in complex business administration. In summary, using Delphi techniques with Agile software programing processes will best align development and deliverables with an accelerated lifecycle in complex environments.


Areas of Future Research

Areas of further research will include implementing this sociotechnical plan into industries of homeland security, banking, and public transit. The security features with people’s unique infrared, voice, and face recognition have the potential to securely expedite many checkpoints at airports, train, and bus stations, as well as taxis and Uber. The security checks and payment of fares could be linked into one system. The sociotechnical plan could be marketed for the health benefits, such as refusing transport for people who were sick or potentially had infectious diseases. Another example might be of the software helping to find a mass shooter before he shot the gun.

Further aspects of research will include other HCI devices and software analytics for the applications and the development of applications for smart devices for smaller-scale sales and production. There were 204 billion apps downloaded in 2019 worldwide, and the projected revenues of mobile apps are $188.9 billion for 2020 (Deyan, 2019). Due to the lower expense of R&D involved in mobile applications, my recommendation is to diversify by simultaneously working on both mobile apps and larger implementations for corporate partners. Partnering with mobile device manufacturers to create advancements in the development of smartphones as HCI’s will be advantageous. Furthermore, merging the hardware with the advancements of software and analytics will be imperative for mass distribution to large organizations. The quick, low-cost sales and marketing to mobile applications like gaming, will have limited analytics, however, will increase product awareness and acceptance. The more advanced software and analytics products will be researched and marketed to larger corporations that have the money to pay and to partner with the sociotechnical plan.

In conclusion, the sociotechnical plan will be an integral part of sustainable competitive advantage in business administration. Flexibility in implementation and future development using the Delphi method is recommended due to the complexity of this plan. Accelerated lifecycles and collaborative feature-driven components will be advantageous for successful business administration.



References
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Banutu-Gomez, M. B., & Banutu-Gomez, S. M. (2016). Organizational change and development. European Scientific Journal12(22). doi:10.19044/esj.2016.v12n22p56
Boehner, K., DePaula, R., Dourish, P., & Sengers, P. (2007). How emotion is made and measured. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies65(4), 275-291. doi:10.1016/j.ijhcs.2006.11.016
Cherniss, C. (2010). Emotional intelligence: Toward clarification of a concept. Industrial and Organizational Psychology3(2), 110-126. doi:10.1111/j.1754-9434.2010.01231.x
Clay-Warner, J., & Robinson, D. T. (2015). Infrared thermography as a measure of emotion response. Emotion Review7(2), 157-162. doi:10.1177/1754073914554783
Dansereau, F., Graen, G. B., & Haga, W. J. (1975) A vertical dyad linkage approach to leadership within formal organizations. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13(1), 46–78. doi:10.1016/0030-5073(75)90005-7
De Jong, C., & Arevalo Östberg, L. M. (2015). Unlimited Vacation Policies: Their influence on employees. Retrieved from https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/search/publication/7369132
Deyan, G. (2019). 61+ Revealing smartphone statistics for 2020. Techjury.net. Retrieved from https://techjury.net/stats-about/smartphone-usage#gref
Feidakis, M., Daradoumis, T., & Caballé, S. (2011, November). Emotion measurement in intelligent tutoring systems: What, when and how to measure. In 2011 Third International Conference on Intelligent Networking and Collaborative Systems (pp. 807-812). IEEE.
Goleman, D. P. (1995). Emotional intelligence: Why it can matter more than IQ for character, health and lifelong achievement. New York, NY: Bantam Books.
Goleman, D., Boyatzis, R. E., & McKee, A. (2013). Primal leadership: Unleashing the power of emotional intelligence. Harvard, MA: Harvard Business Press.
Groysberg, B., Lee, J., Price, J., & Cheng, J. (2018). The leader’s guide to corporate culture. Harvard Business Review96(1), 44-52. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/2018/01/the-culture-factor
Hazlett, R. L., & Benedek, J. (2007). Measuring emotional valence to understand the user's experience of software. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies65(4), 306-314. doi:10.1016/j.ijhcs.2006.11.005
Humphrey, R. H., Burch, G. F., & Adams, L. L. (2016). The benefits of merging leadership research and emotions research. Frontiers in Psychology7, 1022. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2016.01022
Ioannou, S., Gallese, V., & Merla, A. (2014). Thermal infrared imaging in psychophysiology: potentialities and limits. Psychophysiology51(10), 951-963. doi:10.1111/psyp.12243
iMotions, (2016). Galvanic Skin Response (GSR): The complete pocket guide. iMotions.com. Retrieved from https://imotions.com/blog/galvanic-skin-response/
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Nanayakkara, S. M., Wickramasinghe, V., & Samarasinghe, G. D. (2018). Role of strategic emotional intelligence on technological capability, technological knowledge management and organizational learning & growth, Moratuwa Engineering Research Conference (MERCon), Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, 2018, pp. 294-299. doi:10.1109/MERCon.2018.8421992
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Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Palm Scenario Planning Failure



The new Palm in Stephen Curry’s Hand (McCracken, 2018).

Introduction

This blog will discuss the scenario planning failure of Palm brand Personal Digital Assistant (PDA). The blog begins with a discussion of why and how organizations have scenario planning failures and what recent research suggests for improving success and efficiencies in the scenario plan.  Then the blog will include a detailed explanation of the failed scenario plan of the Palm PDA. Next, the blog focuses on the impacts and the relevancy to the organization followed by the forces that contributed to the innovation’s failure. Last, the blog features a summary highlighting the key points of the Palm scenario planning failure.

When Plans Go Wrong

Organizations are increasingly using the scenario planning approach to predict future situations and to make strategic plans based on those predictions. The reasoning behind the use of scenario planning is to help reduce failures and the level of uncertainties and to provide alternative thinking used in the decision-making process (Ratcliffe, 2000). Scenario planning can be time-consuming; specifically, the construction of contextual storytelling using what-if techniques of mapping, creativity, or Delphi techniques for decision-making and strategic planning are time-intensive. Daszynska-Zygadlo (2012) defines scenario planning in three components:


  1. identifying future combinations of uncertainties and emergent technology;
  2. interpreting relevant past and current events for scenarios; and
  3. developing logics for scenario moves and the interplay of predetermined elements and uncertainties.   

Paul's (2016) research suggests scenario planning needs to be aligned with a risk failure mode effect and analysis (REMEA) based in project management to efficiently eliminate the element of uncertainty in the detection method of risk.

Impact Example

In 1992 the Palm, Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) was created by Jeff Hawkins and was called the Casio Zoomer, designed to compete against Apple’s Newton PDA. In 1996 USRobotics (purchased by 3Com in 1997) released the Palm PDA at $299 (McCracken, 2018). For those who remember, it was small and easy to use and allowed users to add cameras or phone capabilities. Palm’s scenario planning was similar to Microsoft’s with licensing its operating systems to third-parties like Sony. In the early 2000’s, Palm introduced Treo650 and was an industry leader with 20,000 apps including games to spreadsheets (McCracken, 2018). The move to running the Windows operating system proved to be poor scenario planning because of Windows' low customer ratings at that time.

Furthermore, in 2007 Palm introduced Foleo, a small laptop, for Treo users to increase screen size and to add a keyboard. Foleo, however, never shipped, and Palm later promised a Foleo II in the future that never shipped and never reached the market. During all of the Foleo debacle, Palm released a new smartphone with a slide-out QWERTY keyboard and a new operating system called WebOS in 2009. The new WebOS was initially only available on the Sprint network which was no threat to iPhone or Android competition (McCracken, 2018). By 2010 the lackluster Palm brand was sold to HP, and in 2013, HP sold the WebOS to LG which adapted the technology for smart TVs. In 2014 TCL purchased the right to use the Palm brand, and in 2018, created a startup using the Palm brand powered by Android in an attempt to rejuvenate a comeback of a small (3.3-inch screen) handheld device using celebrity marketing by Golden State Warrior Stephen Curry. The Verge labels the Palm devices as tiny, strange, quirky and having low-end specs (Welch, 2018). Despite numerous attempts, the Palm devices have failed at scenario planning.

Relevant and Why

The relevancy of the Palm scenario planning failure was pivotal at the adoption of the WebOS, which was only initially available on the Sprint network. At what point in the scenario plan did a Sprint-only network come up? Palm’s strategic plan may have been to dominate Sprint sales; however, the scenario plan failed to align with it. In 2004 Palm was dominating the market, and by 2009 became no threat to iPhone or Android by isolating itself in the small Sprint network. As previously mentioned, Paul's (2016) research showed increased success when scenario planning used REMEA. The scenario plan effect and analysis with the WebOS and Sprint-only network failed to assess the iPhone and Android cellphone competition and growth.

Forces

The technical forces mentioned above of WebOS and isolation to the Sprint network drastically reduced the success and ultimate failure of the Palm brand and device. Furthermore, the social aspect of customers’ wants and desires of a larger screen and easier-use keyboard were ignored. Instead, Palm tried to create the Foleo and Foleo II mini laptop—complicating matters—and never released either product to advance societal perceptions. An additional influence was money. After multiple attempts for R&D on the Palm and Foleo with no release or product sales, the funds had run out, and the organization had to sell.

Summary

Scenario planning must include RFMEA to align the scope and project goals with the real-world consequences of cost, schedule, and quality in uncertain conditions. Palm failed to correctly scenario plan after initial success in 2004 when it introduced Foleo products with the WebOS exclusively on the Sprint network. After being sold several times, Palm brand has struggled to make a comeback, or obtain a sustainable competitive advantage. Issues of relevance to competition, combined with financial forces, have misaligned the scenario plan and overall product strategies leading to failed product sales and loss of market share.


References

Boehner, K., DePaula, R., Dourish, P., & Sengers, P. (2007). How emotion is made and measured. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies65(4), 275-291. doi:10.1016/j.ijhcs.2006.11.016

Daszyńska-Żygadło, K. (2012). Scenario planning and real options analysis in integrated risk management process. Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska. Sectio H. Oeconomia, 46(4 (XLVI)), 75-84. Retrieved from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/bf85/86c19e2d7f56d30873d72629b914a6dcb331.pdf

McCracken, H. (2018). Palm’s progress: The rise, fall-andrebirth-of a legendary brand. FastCompany.com. Retrieved from https://www.fastcompany.com/90246716/palms-progress-the-rise-fall-and-rebirth-of-a-legendary-brand

Paul, V. K., & Basu, C. (2016). Scenario Planning and Risk Failure Mode Effect and Analysis (RFMEA) based Management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management6(2), 24-29. doi:10.6106/JCEPM.2016.6.2.024

Ratcliffe, J. (2000). Scenario building: a suitable method for strategic property planning?. Property management18(2), 127-144. Retrieved from https://arrow.tudublin.ie/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1015&context=futuresacart

Welch, C. (2018). Alleged new Palm smartphone is tiny, strange, and has low-end specs. TheVerge.com. Retrieved from https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2018/8/9/17672068/new-palm-android-pepito-smartphone-photos-specs-leak





Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Mysterious Innovation


Mysterious Innovation


Introduction

Innovations are found in new and mysterious ways. In this blog, I will look at three different ways innovation is at times discovered through:
  1. Serendipity
  2. Error
  3. Exaptation
I will give the definitions of the three terms above, followed by scholarly definitions, and a real-world example of the phenomenon. Finally, the blog will end with a summary.

    • Serendipity
My definition of serendipity is when something happens by chance or is an unexpected result or consequence of another action. For example, Charles Goodyear accidentally charred some rubber, and it formed a leather-like elastic rim that serendipitously weatherproofed the rubber. Fink (2017) points out serendipity does not have an antonym. Johansson (2012) defines serendipity as the fortunate development of events when organizations stress the importance of making a quest for discoveries by accident and sagacity in research. Serendipity is the intersection of different cultures, industries, and disciplines. For example, when Bill Gates realized Microsoft Windows had a serious memory flaw in the operating system, he considered abandoning the operating system. Later Bill Gates and members of his team meet with IBM to help fix the problem but to no avail. Subsequently, those same IBM employees were on a business trip at an after-work hour’s party. The IBM employees met other non-employees who joked about how to fix the problem. Within hours after sitting down to try to resolve the problem with the jokesters’ recommendations, the IBM employees solved the problem (Johansson, 2012) which forever changed Microsoft’s future.

    • Error
We all have heard of trial and error. Generally speaking, this is how innovation occurs, usually with more errors opposed to instant innovation on the first or second try. Errors trigger subsequent corrections and potential improvements by researchers and innovators. What comes first—errors or innovation? Arguably errors typically come first and during the innovation process. The integration of errors and failure (intentional or non-intentional) are the drivers and diffusion of organizational innovation through knowledge, social systems, and organizational structure (Kister, 2019). A classic example of an error was in 1956 when Wilson Greatbatch was building a heart rhythm recording device and installed the wrong resistor. The machine produced a heart-like (lub-dub) sounding rhythm. Thus, an innovative new pacemaker was discovered. Previously, pacemakers were the size of TVs; Greatbatch’s device was two cubic inches, and now more than half of a million of the life-saving devices are implanted yearly (Donnelly, 2012).

    • Exaptation
There are very few methodological and epistemological criteria used to identify and analyze exaptations. The use of exaptations in the field of social sciences remains latent (Andriani and Carihnani, 2012). The application of exaptation in technology and innovation is defined as the characterization by a creation mechanism with new functions (Lane, 2011). I would characterize exaptation as entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs must use creativity with existing resources in the creation of mechanisms with acts of exaptation.


The heuristic mechanism of exaptation diverges from the mainstream rationalist paradigm for problem-solving (De Sordi, 2019). Entrepreneurial exaptation is the need for actions and mechanisms to exercise a new function, product, or service. An example of an exaptation in technology is the use of data analysis for customers’ purchases. British retailer Tesco, a new entrant in the insurance market, used intensive data analysis by monitoring the evolution and relationship of customers to know the insurance requirements of its customers beforehand (Peppers & Rogers, 2011). Exaptation can and should be used throughout all areas of an organization and not limited to the core business and R&D. Exaptation mechanisms can spur additional innovation (Andriani & Carignani, 2012).

Summary

This blog defined and discussed the way innovation can happen with modern-day examples. There is no innovation without failure. Innovation doesn’t happen without action. Organizations must plan to innovate and draw inferences for innovation to occur. Innovation comes from internal knowledge and resources, reflective analysis, and perseverance with critical thinking. Often during that process, innovation intentionally, or unintentionally, occurs in serendipity, error, or by exaptation. 

References

Andriani, P., & Carignani, G. (2012). Exaptation and modular systems. In EURAM Annual Conference, Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, Rotterdam (NL), 6th–8th June.

De Sordi, J. O., Reed, E. N., Meireles, M., Hashimoto, M., & Rigato, C. (2019). Exaptation in management: Beyond technological innovations. European Business Review, 31(1), 64-91. doi:http://dx.doi.org.proxy.cecybrary.com/10.1108/EBR-01-2018-0020

Donnelly, T. (2012). 9 Brilliant inventions made by mistake. Inc.com. Retrieved from https://www.inc.com/tim-donnelly/brilliant-failures/9-inventions-made-by-mistake.html

Fink, T. M. A., Reeves, M., Palma, R., & Farr, R. S. (2017). Serendipity and strategy in rapid innovation. Nature communications8(1), 2002. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-02042-w

Johansson, F. (2012). When success is born out of serendipity. Harv. Bus. Rev18, 22. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/2012/10/when-success-is-born-out-of-serendipity

Kister, A. (2019). Error Monitoring as an Organisational Innovation in Public Hospital Activity. Economics & Sociology12(4), 213–227. https://doi-org.proxy.cecybrary.com/10.14254/2071-789X.2019/12-4/13

Lane, D. A. 2010. “Innovazione e distretti industriali”. In Processi di innovazione e sviluppo locale. Teorie e politiche, Edited by: Russo, M. 57–68. Roma: Donzelli.


Peppers, D., & Rogers, M. (2011). Managing customer relationships: A strategic framework. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Sunday, January 12, 2020

Taxi Industry Forecasting Failure vs. Scenario Planning


Taxi Industry Forecasting Failure vs. Scenario Planning



By Ronald Wellman


Introduction

This blog will describe how the taxi industry failed while using traditional forecasting and how the use of scenario planning supports planning innovation for change. The blog starts with a brief background and timeline of the demise within the taxi industry. Next, the blog includes a description of scenario planning and how it supports innovation. This description is followed by a discussion of three major forces that affected the failure of the taxi industry and the rise of ride-sharing organizations. The blog concludes with a summary of how to best use scenario planning and the social impact for future change.


Source: (Coruscatem, 2019)

Taxi Industry Forecasting Failure vs. Scenario Planning

Background on the Taxi Industry

The taxi industry has had a major forecasting failure. Taxi driving in major cities has been regulated since the 1930s by limiting the number of licensing fees for the issuing of medallions for drivers (Goldstein, 2018). The forecasting failure runs deeper with a monopoly of greed starting at the government level by regulation and taxation. According to the Certify SpendSmart report, as recently as 2014, ride-hailing companies like Uber only had 8% market share compared to car rental companies at 55% and taxis at 37% (Goldstein, 2018).

According to the Taxi & Limousine Commission (TLC), in the first quarter of 2018, ride-hailing companies were at 70.5% of the market, while rental cars were at 23.5%, with taxis at only 6%. The New York taxi medallion business in 2014 valued each medallion at $1 million, which now are estimated at $170,000 (Goldstein, 2018). Other research suggests even lower amounts for the medallion values at the writing of this blog. Due to the drop in the value of medallions, many taxi companies that have taken business loans out to cover the cost of the taxi medallions filed bankruptcy. Some individuals like Doug Schifter, a 40-year old driver, blamed the New York government and the TLC for lack of responsibility. Unfortunately, Doug Shifter committed suicide in front of city hall; his reasoning for taking his life was because he blamed the government for making “a huge number of cars available” which caused him lost revenue (Gellafante, 2018). The number of taxis available for decades was typically 12,000-13,000, and on a Facebook post, Doug Schifter said ride-hailing vehicles had jumped to more than 100,000, which forced him to work 100-120 hours a week to survive.




Source: (Goldstein, 2018)

Scenario Planning Supports Innovation

The taxi industry, independent drivers, and the government used traditional forecasting methods in the execution of their business strategy and would have benefited from an innovative scenario-planning strategy. The industry was focused on budgeting, which had biased gaps in targets and sustainable performance which lacked a competitive strategy. Traditional forecasting methodology lags in geographical and industry data (Ellero, 2014). Furthermore, the forecasting strategy used constrained adaptability for innovation with technology, research and development, diversity, and growth.
Scenario planning uses imagination to speculate future horizons with mapping and is based in past performance; however, it is forward-looking to project the complex market uncertainty into the future. The once stable monopoly of the taxi industry was met with volatility and was caught proverbially sleeping at the wheel. Additionally, the taxi industry neglected to use any type of scenario planning strategy to cope with the volatility.

Unfortunately, since there is no methodology to predict the future, scenario planning supports innovation by planning for best and worse case scenarios that are most likely to occur (Wade, 2012; Wade, 2014). The Oxford scenario approach helps innovation with a best or worst-case scenario while considering the “what if” normative view. Traditional forecasting uses a combination of past and immediate transactional information intertwined with the stakeholders’ interpretation of indirect influences from other environments like the supply-chain, competition, and customers. The Oxford scenario planning uses the overlapping of inside and outside factors to better understand innovative plausible future outcomes (Ramirez, 2017). The Oxford scenario focuses on the ordering of best and worse case scenarios, in combination with, assigning a probability to future outcomes.

Forces that Impacted the Taxi Industry

Force 1

Government regulation played a large part in impacting the taxi industry by charging large fees and limiting the number of medallions, arguing that traffic flow and congestion were the reason not to clog streets with an excessive amount of vehicles. Government regulation created the monopoly, however, was caught sleeping behind the wheel when it came to innovation using the traditional forecasting method. Now the taxi industry as a whole is playing catchup trying to compete competitively and regulate the new innovative ride-sharing industry. The reverse innovation process and scenario planning of ride-sharing organizations like Uber averted direct government control of taxi medallions. A good example of government using scenario planning was in the Netherlands when Uber failed to get approval through changes in Dutch taxi law to operate its UberPop platform (Pelzer, 2019). In New York and numerous other cities, Uber’s innovation permitted unlicensed chauffeur drivers to connect with passengers and circumvent taxi use.

Force 2

Technology is a key factor, considering handheld GPS systems and cell phones have been around since the turn of the century. Granted that early technology was bulky bag phones and laptop computer sized devices; however, there was plenty of room in a taxi to house these devices. Fast forward to the present day, with more computing power in the palm of your hand or on your wrist with a smartwatch and cloud processing technology, which has taken ridesharing to new levels with increased convenience, security, speed, pricing, and availability. Uber's innovative mobile app allowed customers to book, pay, reserve, and even share rides at reduced rates in a platform economy using technology to bridge the socio-economic gap.

Force 3

Money and the monopolistic nature of the medallion system left taxies and government scrambling. One of the arguments for ridesharing is that more rural areas are now getting better service at a lower cost to customers. Taxis increased fares and poor service to urban areas discriminated against these customers. Drivers did not want to make trips outside the well-populated areas where the bulk of the business was; therefore, urban customers’ service suffered from low-quality service and increased prices. The opposite of that is happening with the ride-share innovation with better service and lower prices in these urban areas.

Summary

            Scenario planning in the ride-sharing industry continues to battle with the three forces mentioned above. In the United States, the socio impact of technology and availability to consumers helped fuel the platform. The deliberate alignment with the organizational vision and mission to the social benefits of service to an urban area, efficient mobility, safety, and non-discriminatory transportation were the contributing factors to the success of the ridesharing platform. Continued scenario planning using the alignment of technology with social impact will help ride-share organizations to obtain a sustainable future.

References


Bellafante, G. (2018). A driver’s suicide reveals the dark side of the gig economy. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/06/nyregion/livery-driver-taxi-uber.html

Coruscate (2019). Taxi app development: Beat ride expansion, its strategies and cost to develop a taxi booking app. Courscate.com. Retrieved from

Ellero, A., & Pellegrini, P. (2014). Are traditional forecasting models suitable for hotels in Italian cities? International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 26(3), 383-400. doi:10.1108/IJCHM-02-2013-0107

Goldstein, M. (2018). Dislocation and its discontents: Ride-sharing’s impact on the taxi industry. Forbes. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgoldstein/2018/06/08/uber-lyft-taxi-drivers/#78cd97e259f0

Pelzer, P., Frenken, K., & Boon, W. (2019). Institutional entrepreneurship in the platform economy: How Uber tried (and failed) to change the Dutch taxi law. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 13(1-12). doi:10.1016/j.eist.2019.02.003

Wade, W. (2012). Scenario planning: A field guide to the future. John Wiley & Sons.

Wade, W. (2014). Scenario planning–Thinking differently about future innovation. Globis Insights.  Retrieved from http://e.globis.jp/article/343

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Socio-Technical Plan


Introduction  
This post will define, describe, and critically evaluate the sociotechnical plan from the paper “Affectability in educational technologies: A socio-technical perspective for design” by Hayashi & Baranauskas (2013). The purpose of the post is to examine the impact of the introduction of new technology on social cultures.

Define
Hayashi & Baranauskas (2013) define a socio-technical plan of how the integration of digital technology (laptops) can potentially help formal and informal learning in an elementary public school in the city of Campinas, in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The study showed the use of technology impacted feelings, values, and the culture of both teachers and students. Embedding technology into learning will affect the entire organization (school); furthermore, socio-technical plans increase the scope and perspectives of informal, formal, and technical aspects of the learning settings. Stein (2012) argues the socio-technical innovation is the new paradigm of innovation by reversing the traditional top-down logic to a bottom-up logic. Marcel de Arruda Torresa's (2017) research shows the new paradigm shift from focusing on economic growth to focusing on a holistic approach to well-being that emerges new economic models, production systems, and wellness ideas as strategies that overcome traditional barriers. The compound layers of a socio-technological plan merge technology, time, and space, with experiences—inside and outside the classroom or organization.

Describe
The Hayashi (2013) socio-technical plan used OLPC (One Laptop Per Child) at the public school in Brazil. The ages of the children ranged from 6-14 years old. Four cases contributed to the understanding of how the socio-technical plan was able to contribute to more meaningful practices. Hayashi (2013) discussed how cognitive models of traditional paradigms are transforming. Research by Boehner et al. (2007) suggested a cognitive socio-technical plan will enhance cognition over rational thought. On the macro side of the study, all teachers and some other employees—such as the principal, pedagogue, janitor, cook, and library attendant—participated in the study. The data were collected through workshops and other activities at the school, including regular classes, along with informal interviews. Reliability was reinforced by pictures, videos, and field notes (Hayashi, 2013).

The technological artifacts (the XO laptops) case results included:
  1. Transforming homework assignments;
  2. Integrating the school in interdisciplinary activities;
  3. Using XO laptops inside and outside the school’s walls; and
  4. Incorporating student volunteers.
Transforming homework assignments allowed students to use laptops with internet browsers and wireless internet connections which saved time from using traditional libraries and walking to computer labs. Other advantages included teachers’ involvement in emotional-management strategies and avoidance of negative, emotionally charged events from doing homework at home (Xu, 2005). The emotional responses from pupils gave teachers and students a better understanding especially when faced with difficulties in assignments (Hayashi, 2013).

Integrating the school’s interdisciplinary activities resulted in scenarios, one of which was “students and consumption at home.” The students’ consumption of food at home scenario involved a process described below:

1.       Students took pictures of products (including nutrition labels) and advertisements.
2.       Students then studied the differences in comparisons of nutrition facts.
3.       Teachers-then initiated discussions. For example, an English as a second language teacher asked the students to capture English words on these pictures to help discuss and better understand words.
4.       Finally, teachers shared results of these discussions, and frequently described students’ attitudes as “happiness” and “sense of accomplishment” with higher motivation, and students with interdisciplinary issues were more proactive with the technology and helped fellow students with increased engagement (Hayashi, 2013).

The use of the laptops—both inside and outside the school—increased students’ pride, and they were more outgoing in discussing the technology with bystanders. On a trip to the park, students took pictures and short videos of animals and made notes with the laptops. Students demonstrated increased values of ownership, happiness, and engagement. Hayashi’s (2013) research indicated the younger students had higher responses of valence and arousal.

Student volunteers, aka “student monitors,” were needed due to the increased challenges and responses from the technology. Student monitors met every two weeks, and students expressed feelings and understandings of the program. Hayashi (2013) noted that the emotional and affective responses and outcomes transcended technological, formal, and informal categories and impacted the students’ lives with valuable learning.

Evaluate – 
In this section, you will evaluate the plan reviewed in this article. You might consider covering both pros and cons about the plan, or you provide examples of successes and/or failures using the plan.
The technology increased engagement between students, as well as, between students and teachers and allowed increased emotional strategies, both in and out of the classroom. The technology helped motivate and give everyone involved a sense of accomplishment. Even students with interdisciplinary issues had positive engagement and emotional responses. One negative issue noted in the study was with a disabled student being more challenged; however, the experience helped her learn more patience and understanding of other people’s needs. The study pointed out technical issues with plugging in the laptops in the classroom and not having enough outlets, lagging computers, internet issues, and operational systems with different interaction models. Informal issues of parents and some teachers not being comfortable with the technology existed. Formal issues of laptop theft prohibited students from taking home the laptops. 

The integration of new technology will always come with some issues especially when technology is completely new, and systems are not in place to better manage use, distribution, time-management, and support systems. Despite some cons of the introduction of the technology, which is to be expected, the positive affective and emotional aspects contributed to increased productivity, satisfaction, and integrated learning opportunities (Hayashi, 2013).

Summary
In summary, the research showed the sooner technology can be introduced in learning with a holistic approach, the better it can simulate contemporary world applications. The socio-technological plan reduced the negative aspects with increased positive emotional and affective aspects demonstrated in the four case scenarios. Furthermore, combining the different learning places (home, school, field trips) stimulated intentional learning and motivation and decreased interdisciplinary issues.


References

Boehner, K., DePaula, R., Dourish, P., & Sengers, P. (2007). How emotion is made and measured. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies, 65(4), 275–291.  doi:10.1016/j.ijhcs.2006.11.016

Hayashi, E. S., & Baranauskas, M. C. (2013). Affectability in educational technologies: A socio-technical perspective for design. Journal of Educational Technology & Society, 16(1), 57–68.

Marcel de Arruda Torresa, P. (2017). Design for socio-technical Innovation: A proposed model to design the change. The Design Journal20(sup1), S3035-S3046. doi:10.1080/14606925.2017.1352811

Stein, J. (2012). Bottom-up and top-down innovation: Create an innovative company. New York. Simply Innovate.

Xu, J. (2005). Homework emotion management reported by high school students. School Community Journal, 15(2), 21-36

Measurement and Control of Employee Emotional Responses and Contagions in Real-Time: Applications of an Emotional Leadership Paradigm Sociotechnical Plan (Updated 8/29/2023)

Measurement and Control of Employee Emotional Responses and Contagions in Real-Time: Applications of an Emotional Leadership Paradigm S...